The political atmosphere in Nigeria is gradually growing tense, with analysts pondering the composition of those who will challenge the government at the centre. This piece, however, dwells on the matter in my state, Sokoto, the Seat of the Caliphate. The discourse seeks to explore the possible composition of Sokoto governorship contestants, examine what political structure entails in the Sokoto political space, assess the attitudes and situations of the possible governorship contenders, and possibly x-ray, as well as project and discuss, the views of sections of the Sokoto power elites on the salient advantages of incumbency where the incumbent performs creditably, and the reverse when the report card is faulty.
Many of us learnt a lot of lessons from the 2023 General Elections in terms of the “what,” “where,” “when,” “how,” and “to what extent” an incumbent governor or a governorship candidate can make an impact towards emerging victorious when the chips are down. Although the power of incumbency plays a role in one’s chances of winning an election, the popularity of a candidate — especially one who has been or is in office and whose stewardship has been put to the test — is indeed an added advantage. Do not also underrate the significance of party structure in winning elections. A candidate can be very popular, credible, and competent, but if they lack party structure, their chances are bleak. We witnessed this in the recent past in Sokoto, where we had the likes of Dr Ibrahim Liman Sifawa, Senator Umaru Dahiru, as well as the strongest contender at the time, Malam Sa’idu Umar Ubandoma, to mention but a few. Political godfatherism also cannot be ruled out in accelerating one’s chances of raking in votes during a contest. However, such godfatherism should have strong and committed lieutenants who can invest in cash and kind to facilitate the success of their godson.
A strong opposition is also a factor in any political contest. In Sokoto State, who are the possible contestants in the forthcoming 2027 governorship race? Under which political parties are they contesting? From which zone out of the three senatorial districts? For instance, from 1999 to date, Sokoto-East Senatorial District has produced Attahiru Ɗalhatu Bafarawa of the then APP (later ANPP), 1999–2007; Sokoto-North produced Aliyu Magatakarda Wamakko of the then PDP, 2007–2015; while Sokoto-South Senatorial District produced Aminu Waziri Tambuwal of the then APC (later PDP), 2015–2023. The baton further turned back to Sokoto-North with the current Ahmad Aliyu of the APC, 2023 to date. From this flashback and simple permutation, it can be observed that every senatorial district has had a taste of the Sokoto Government House, with the circle turning back to Sokoto-North. Despite this, sections of Sokoto elites are of the view that turn-by-turn emergence of a governor from a senatorial zone is not an issue; a governor can come from any senatorial district, even repeatedly, provided he or she can adequately deliver the goods to the satisfaction of the governed.
At the moment, therefore, the All Progressives Congress (APC) has the incumbent, Dr Ahmad Aliyu Sokoto. Are Sa’idu Umar Ubandoma, Manir Ɗan’iya, Yusuf Suleiman, as well as any additional ones not mentioned from their group, contesting under the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), or are they regrouping to emerge from the new African Democratic Congress (ADC)? What about Sheikh Ibrahim Liman Sifawa of the then ADP, as well as Sheikh Bashir Ahmad Sani (alias Bashir Ɗanfili), who recently voiced his intention to contest the 2027 governorship seat? Also, Senator Abubakar Umar Gada and Senator Umaru Ɗahiru were among the contestants in the 2023 poll; are they coming out again?
This discourse does not, however, touch on internal party brouhaha; hence, it does not peep into the internal fights or rumblings of the PDP at the top, let alone here in Sokoto. Neither do we pay attention to the little skirmishes within the APC between Senator Lamiɗo’s little camp and that of the mighty Wamakko’s fold. Remember, we say party structure is a factor in tilting the pendulum in one’s favour. Perhaps that seems to be the reason Sani Yakubu of the lower chamber of the National Assembly had a rethink and slipped from Lamiɗo’s group to quickly rejoin Wamakko’s larger and ruling camp. Sentiments aside, people are of the view that the incoming contestants must be agile enough to slug it out with Amadun Alu in 2027, judging by his report card in moving Sokoto from what it was around 2015–2023.
Irrespective of all criticisms from the hard-liners in the opposition, sections of the elites in Sokoto State are of the view that Ahmad Aliyu has moved Sokoto for the better in terms of certain infrastructural services and social welfare, especially to the spiritual leaders (the ulama), who are the custodians of societal moral values, the weak, and the needy. They also recall the incumbent governor’s efforts at gradually clearing the outstanding gratuities owed to retired civil servants inherited by his government. This is apart from the ongoing payment of gratuities to those retiring during his reign. Despite certain missteps by the incumbent, which cannot be ruled out in any public stewardship, sections of Sokoto elders contend that there has been improvement in the stewardship of Sokoto affairs from the year 2023 to date. Pundits interviewed within Sokoto and its environs opine that they would hardly welcome Ahmad Aliyu’s replacement in view of the benefits the masses derive from the government’s welfarist moves and tangible infrastructural services across the state. They, however, draw the Ahmad Aliyu government’s attention to the execution and completion of infrastructural services, especially road projects within the ancient metropolitan city of Sokoto, rather than concentrating on the elitist communities at the GRAs, whose road deterioration cannot match that in the main city centre. Besides that, the concentration of people who make a better impact during elections and who are diehard political actors — either concentrated in ancient metropolitan Sokoto or at the grassroots — requiring better roads and drainage should not be undermined. Despite all the hurdles and challenges of insecurity, especially in eastern Sokoto, and the governor’s efforts at providing logistics and other support to curb the menace, Ahmad Aliyu’s rulership, according to certain pundits, is observed to be succeeding compared to the immediate past regime.
Let us digress a little to explore another factor that may affect the voting pattern of the less politically enlightened electorate of a state, especially in Northern Nigeria, where there is high dependence on government and the poverty curve rises in geometric progression. It has been the practice in Nigeria that the presidential election comes first before that of the governors. In case the presidency struggles to win or at least goes to a second round of voting to determine the winner, the situation may expose the less politically mature or less enlightened electorate. It will, however, hardly affect states whose voting pattern is devoid of who emerges at the centre. The voting pattern of such politically wise electorates remains sacrosanct, provided they are satisfied with the one they are supporting at the state level. We do not want to be specific in mentioning the more politically conservative and ideologically sound state(s) in the North whose voting direction is not bent by the amount of naira or commodities shared with them. The states are, however, few, and history reveals Kano as one of them. Sokoto people, to a certain extent, practiced a similar pattern of voting in the late 2000s and perhaps in the recent 2023 election in certain aspects. There are also instances of people’s belief in the qualities of a candidate enhancing their chances of winning an election, irrespective of the party the candidate belongs to. In any case, money politics is observed to still be a problem in Nigeria’s elections. Although there are certain voters with the notion of “Let’s collect the money and vote for the right candidate,” the attitude is still bad and portrays the polity in a bad light.
A section of the elders in Sokoto often says, “An average Sokoto man values humility and regard, which appear to be the hallmark of Wamakko’s political ideology.” It seems to be the ideology which the “principal” used in the past to woo the Sakkwatawa through visits — scheduled and unscheduled — for condolences, marriages and naming ceremonies, and sympathy visits to anyone irrespective of social status in society. The same ideology appears to permeate the veins of his mentee in the manner he operates. It is among the political structures and strategies that a prospective and committed politician remains linked and in constant romance with their immediate communities, who are card-carrying members who could pay back during election days. It has also been observed by many that Sokoto State has numerous seasonal politicians who appear to seek people’s mandate when political drums are beaten, only to disappear until another election season. Can you try this in the South? Election or no election, Rome was not built in a day. Politicians with such people-oriented modus operandi of always identifying with the grassroots have been planting their seeds for quite a long time and eventually record a bumper harvest.
In the overall analysis, Sokoto people are observed to be interested in elections devoid of rancour, hatred, and name-calling. Politics ought to be practised according to the rules of the game. With about 12 months or less to the poll, we pray for a hitch-free election so that our state will continue to prosper in the comity of states in Nigeria. We also pray for a permanent solution to the persistent insecurity wreaking havoc on our communities.
Muhammad Sajo writes from the Sanyinna District of Tambuwal Local Government, Sokoto State, Nigeria. He can be reached at sajomuhammad@gmail.com.
