The death of former President Muhammadu Buhari on July 13, 2025, marks not just the end of an era but the beginning of a seismic shift in Nigeria’s political landscape. Buhari, a towering figure in Northern politics and the backbone of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) bloc within the All Progressives Congress (APC), held an unshakable grip on an estimated 12 million votes a loyalty that was more personal than partisan. With his passing, the structural cohesion of the CPC faction has fractured, opening the door for a new wave of coalition politics that could redefine electoral outcomes in Nigeria.
By Akibu Dalhatu
The Buhari factor: A now-vanished electoral monolith
Buhari’s influence in Nigerian politics was unparalleled. From his military rule in the 1980s to his democratic presidency (2015–2023), his appeal in the North was rooted in his perceived integrity, anti-corruption stance, and populist rhetoric that resonated with the “talakawa” (the poor masses) . His political machinery, particularly the CPC structure absorbed into the APC, delivered bloc votes that were instrumental in defeating an incumbent in 2015 and securing his re-election in 2019 .
However, Buhari’s death has left a vacuum. Key CPC loyalists—such as former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai and ex-Attorney General Abubakar Malami—have already defected to the African Democratic Congress (ADC), signaling a broader realignment . These defections are not merely symbolic; they represent a fundamental weakening of Tinubu’s hold over the Northern electorate.
Tinubu’s dilemma: The myth of a unified APC
President Bola Tinubu, who succeeded Buhari in 2023, has long relied on the Northern voting bloc to sustain the APC’s dominance. Yet, without Buhari’s unifying presence, the CPC wing is no longer a guaranteed vote bank. The recent naira swap policy controversy—seen by many as an attempt to undermine Tinubu’s 2023 campaign already exposed the tensions between the Tinubu and Buhari factions .
Now, with Buhari gone, the CPC bloc is “free” to realign. Many of Buhari’s staunchest supporters, previously bound by personal loyalty, are now politically unmoored. If the ADC or another opposition coalition can consolidate these disaffected elements, the APC could face an unprecedented erosion of its Northern stronghold.
The rise of coalition politics: ADC as the new force
The ADC, bolstered by high-profile defectors from the CPC, is positioning itself as the natural home for Buhari’s orphaned supporters. A successful coalition would require more than just absorbing former APC members, it must present a credible alternative to Tinubu’s economic policies, which have been criticized for exacerbating inflation and unemployment .
Historical precedents suggest that Nigerian elections are won through broad alliances. Buhari himself only secured victory in 2015 after the APC united opposition forces against the then-ruling PDP . If the ADC can replicate this model by merging with smaller parties and leveraging the CPC’s grassroots network it could pose a serious threat to the APC in future elections.
Conclusion: A new political dawn
Buhari’s death has irrevocably altered Nigeria’s political calculus. The APC, once a formidable coalition, now risks fragmentation without its Northern anchor. Meanwhile, the ADC and other opposition forces have a rare opportunity to capitalize on this disarray.
For Tinubu, the lesson is clear: the era of taking the North for granted is over. The 12 million votes that once flowed reliably to Buhari are now up for grabs, and the 2027 elections may well be decided by which coalition can best harness this shifting loyalty.
The post-Buhari political order is still taking shape, but one thing is certain: Nigeria’s electoral dynamics will never be the same again.
Dalhatu is a political analyst and commentator with expertise in Nigerian politics and electoral trends. He writes from Sokoto
