Speculations are ripe on the impending defection of the leader and presidential candidate of the New Nigeria Peoples’ Party (NNPP) in the 2023 presidential election Dr Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). It is still at the level of speculation as people close to him have dismissed it as handiwork of some opposition politicians that are jittery about the rising political influence of Dr Kwankwaso. In any rumour however, there might be an iota of truth. If this speculation becomes a reality, it will not be a surprise to many observers because pursue of personal interest is common with our politicians.
Kwankwaso is now at the crossroad and in dilemma which way to go. He knows that President Tinubu’s eyes are desperately on winning Kano state by all means using the instrument of coercion at his disposal in 2027. Though Kwankwaso has a cult-like followers in Kano, the obnoxious policies of Mr Tinubu will make convincing people, particularly from the north, to vote for Tinubu in spite of the difficult condition they are subjected to, a herculean task. That, however, doesn’t mean Kwankwaso will not go with substantial number of his supporters should he decides to defect to the APC. But there are definitely some diehard supporters that will either decide to remain in the NNPP or join the coalition being spearheaded by the former vice President and Presidential candidate of the PDP in the 2023 presidential election Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. I am thinking of what people like Buba Galadima will tell Nigerians should they follow Kwankwaso to APC.
Kwankwaso has to indulge in a serious meditation because his invitation to join the APC could be a trap set by Tinubu which could finish him politically and obliterate his kwankwasiyya movement. Rumour from the grapevine suggests that Tinubu is offering him ministerial position or that of the vice president. Tinubu can make Kwankwaso minister but I doubt much if he can replace Kashim Shettima with Kwankwaso. Even if he has that plan in mind, must be during 2027 election.
Position of a minister is that of employee of the President as he can hire and fire at will. Kwankwaso should know this being a former governor on two different occasions when he could hire and fire any commissioner. Though presidents and governors are elected on a single ticket, in Nigeria vice presidents and deputy governors are virtually employees of their principals.
If Kwankwaso accepts any of the two, that will be the burial of his kwankwasiyya movement because he will begin to sing Emi Lekon in tune with his principal. No wonder some pundits describe vice presidents and deputy governors as spare tyres. They are only important when one has a flat tyre. Very few have been so lucky. Kwankwaso’s defection could definitely be a costly gamble that he will regret for life.
My apprehension is that when Kwankwaso finally defects to the APC, he will encounter initial problems with the APC National chairman who is also his former deputy governor Dr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, Senate deputy president Barau Jibrin and some NNPP National Assembly members from Kano who have already perfected plan to also defect to APC. That, however, could not be a difficult situation to deal with knowing full well his political sagacity. Kwankwaso will, in a short time, silence them and assert his supremacy.
Since the intention of Mr Tinubu is to have Kwankwaso on his side for self interest, he will allocate him an important ministry and be the defacto leader of the APC in Kano with governor Abba Kabir Yusuf as the actual leader. This arrangement will, in the beginning, be good for Kwankwaso. But as 2027 election draws nearer, he will begin to notice some foul play.
The President, in collaboration with APC will be dragging Kano governorship primary election until when it is too late to challenge the decision of the party, then they will announce their preferred candidate as the standard bearer of the party in Kano. Remember the Senate deputy president Barau Jibrin is nursing ambition of occupying Kano government house. By this time Kwankwaso and his supporters will be in disarray and unable to take any decision that will hamper the success of the party.
If this happens, it will be a serious blow to Kwankwaso and the entire Kwankwasiyya movement. In order for Kwankwaso to continue to be seen as champion of the masses and continue to enjoy their support and preserve his political reputation, he shouldn’t go back to the party he castigated and made his supporters vehemently abhored. In the alternative, he should consider joining the coalition being led by the former vice president Atiku Abubakar. Da muguwar rawa, gara ƙin tashi.
— BALA MAIDALA
18/APR/2025.
